Shapermint · USA · Paid Media
Performance drop since May 26 + ROAS drivers
ROAS = (CVR × AOV) / CPC · CDP Redash 2635 (1d-click, revenue_1dc) · daily + weekly · data through June 1, 2026
Two distinct effects, both now recovering: recent comedown (rates) + MoM CPC (Rakuten exit)
1Summary
Two distinct effects on top of a macro headwind.
ASince May 26 — recovering
Rate drop (ATC%, CVR) was a Memorial Day + promo comedown. Now recovering: weekends back to mid-May levels; Sun May 31 ROAS 3.13 (above MD Sun); some weekday softness remains.
BMoM Search Brand — CPC recovering
ROAS down on inflated CPC (Rakuten affiliates on brand KWs, per Cassia). Rakuten exited May 26 → CPC confirmed falling: weekly W21 $1.42 → W22 $1.37; daily Jun 1 hit $1.21 (period low).
CBackdrop
Soft US macro in May (CCI ▼, real retail ▼) — WoW CVR erosion + higher promo sensitivity. See §2.
ROAS = CVR (ATC% × IC/ATC × CO CVR) × AOV ÷ CPC
- The recent drop is across ALL Google channels, not just Search Brand. Brand fell more (Search Brand ATC% −5.3pp, Shopping Brand −3.1, PMax Brand −3.6) than Non-Brand (−1.4 to −1.7). CPC stable; spend ▲.
- Absolute revenue went UP, not down: Search Brand same-DOW is at its 3-week high (Tue $24k→$43k; Thu $27k→$36k). Google total also ▲. ROAS fell because spend scaled faster than revenue — efficiency, not revenue loss.
- Why CVR/ATC drops: post-Memorial-Day comedown + promo ended, on top of softer demand (macro). Evidence: CDP — acq and ret CVR fall together; GA4 — drop is uniform across mobile/desktop/tablet (all −6pp) and across new and returning. Uniform = supply/demand, not bug.
- Recovery in the data: Google Total ROAS climbed W21 2.54 → W22 2.64 (highest in 12 weeks); Sun May 31 ROAS 3.13 beat MD Sun (3.03); CVR 7.48% on May 31 — new period high.
- Lag caveat: 1d ROAS for May 31 – Jun 1 is still maturing; the 7d line is already higher. But ATC% (fast metric) already confirms the rate recovery.
- MoM Search Brand: ROAS −23% (Mar W11 8.07 → May W22 6.20) from CPC inflation. Cause confirmed by Cassia: Rakuten affiliates on brand KWs. Rakuten stopped May 26 → CPC dropped W21 $1.42 → W22 $1.37; daily Jun 1 $1.21 (new low). Cassia's US/UK/AU bid cuts (May 26) appear to be holding IS — CA kept bids as control.
2US macro context — the headwind
US consumer confidence has been weak since the January shock, with a second dip in May (Middle East war, inflation). This pressures discretionary demand for shapewear and shows up as background WoW CVR erosion and higher promo sensitivity (CVR ▼ when offer is pulled).
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index — monthly
- January: sharp drop −9.7 pts (84.5) → year's initial shock.
- Feb-Apr: gradual recovery (91.2→93.8).
- May: another dip −0.7 to 93.1 — inflation worries and Middle East war intensify price fears.
- 2 in 3 consumers cutting spend; middle-income starting to cut discretionary (K-shaped → "dipping E").
- For shapewear (discretionary, price-sensitive): softer demand → background CVR ▼ and competitive CPC ▲.
3The drop since May 26 (daily)
Daily ATC% — falls May 26 ▼
Daily ROAS (1d vs 7d matured)
Mon May 25 = Memorial Day (long-weekend peak). May 26-28 = post-holiday comedown (rates dip). May 29 – Jun 1 = recovery: weekend rates back to mid-May levels, Sun May 31 above MD Sun. Some weekday softness persists (Mon Jun 1 ATC% 21.7 vs normal Mon ~24%). The light coral dashed line (ROAS 7d) shows how much the 1d will rise as it matures.
Drop by channel (peak May 24-25 → post May 26 – Jun 1)
| Channel | ATC% | CVR% | ROAS |
|---|
| Search Brand | 27.8%→23.5% -4.3 | 14.9%→11.8% -3.2 | 7.79→5.90 -1.89 |
| Shopping Brand | 18.7%→16.8% -1.9 | 7.3%→6.6% -0.7 | 2.20→2.04 -0.16 |
| PMax Brand | 9.6%→6.9% -2.7 | 5.7%→3.8% -1.9 | 3.06→2.15 -0.91 |
| Search NB | 12.3%→10.9% -1.4 | 4.6%→4.2% -0.4 | 1.70→1.48 -0.22 |
| Shopping NB | 12.6%→11.8% -0.8 | 4.2%→3.8% -0.4 | 1.58→1.35 -0.23 |
Falls across all Google channels. Brand falls more than Non-Brand. Same pattern → common cause (supply/demand), not channel-specific.
Revenue vs Spend — Google Total daily
Revenue (black line) sustained / up WoW — Tue $78k→$57k→$86k; Wed $68k→$65k→$74k; Thu $66k→$56k→$74k (highest). Sun May 31 revenue $100k — best Sun in window (above MD Sun). Spend (dashed coral) had risen faster during MD push → that's why ROAS dipped briefly; now spend normalized and ROAS recovered.
Why is the rate dropping? (CDP + GA4)
- CDP — acq and ret CVR fall together: Search Brand acqCVR 7.6%→5.3, retCVR 7.2%→5.7 — % of returning orders stable (~48-52%). If it were a new vs returning mix, only one would fall. Both falling = the offer changed (promo ended) for everyone.
- GA4 — uniform by device: mobile ATC% 27.3→20.3 (−6.9pp), desktop 31.9→25.5 (−6.4), tablet 23.8→17.5 (−6.3). If it were a tag/pixel bug it'd be one device. Uniform = real.
- GA4 — new vs returning: new ATC% 27.4→21.3 (−6.1), returning 36.5→28.0 (−8.5). Returning falls more → deal-seekers who already bought over Memorial Day weekend.
- → Cause = post-Memorial-Day + promo ended + background erosion (macro). By May 29 – Jun 1 the rates recovered on weekends (Sun May 31 above MD Sun); some weekday softness persists (Jun 1 Mon ATC% 21.7 vs normal Mon ~24%).
Search Brand — same-DOW (WoW)
| Day | ATC% | CVR% | ROAS |
|---|
| Mon May 18 | 24.1% | 13.71% | 6.86 |
| Mon May 25 | 26.7% | 14.85% | 7.99 |
| Mon Jun 01 | 21.7% | 10.64% | 5.89 |
|
| Tue May 12 | 24.2% | 13.85% | 7.74 |
| Tue May 19 | 22.0% | 12.66% | 5.74 |
| Tue May 26 | 23.0% | 11.81% | 6.43 |
|
| Wed May 13 | 22.5% | 13.55% | 7.23 |
| Wed May 20 | 23.4% | 11.51% | 5.55 |
| Wed May 27 | 22.4% | 11.11% | 5.29 |
|
| Thu May 14 | 23.4% | 12.48% | 6.02 |
| Thu May 21 | 22.1% | 11.12% | 5.48 |
| Thu May 28 | 22.2% | 10.95% | 4.78 |
|
Mon block (top): Jun 1 Mon ATC% 21.7, CVR 10.64, ROAS 5.89 — soft vs normal Mon (May 18: 24.1 / 13.71 / 6.86), confirming weekday rate softness still present. Tue/Wed/Thu blocks: CVR erodes ~1pp/week (Tue 13.9→12.7→11.8; Thu 12.5→11.1→10.9). Highlighted = most recent same-DOW.
4ROAS by channel — MoM (indexed, Mar = 100)
Monthly context. Search Brand drops to ~77; Google Total (dashed) holds. Shopping Brand slightly down; PMax Brand and non-brand rise/hold.
5Why is Search Brand ROAS falling MoM? → CPC (Rakuten)
CPC explains almost the entire MoM ROAS drop. From 8.07 (Mar) to 6.20 (W22): CPC (+30%) subtracts −1.89; CVR +0.15; AOV −0.14. Cause of the inflated CPC (confirmed by Cassia): Rakuten affiliates were bidding on brand keywords, pushing up the auction. Rakuten exited May 26 → recovery now visible: CPC W21 $1.42 → W22 $1.37; daily Jun 1 $1.21 (new low). Search Brand ROAS held flat W21→W22 despite continued CVR softness — CPC drop did the work.
Search Brand — daily CPC (May 12-28)
Green dot = May 26 (Rakuten exit, $1.31). With 7 days of post-Rakuten data, the recovery is now clear: Jun 1 hit $1.21 (new period low — back to early-May level). Weekly average W21 $1.42 → W22 $1.37. Cassia's US/UK/AU bid cuts (May 26) appear to be holding IS — likely the new efficient CPC level. Watch the next 1-2 weeks to confirm steady state.
6The 3 ROAS drivers — actual values (weekly)
CPC ($) — rising in Brand
Absolute values. CPC $: Search Brand $1.05→$1.42. CVR %: Search Brand ~12-13%, non-brand 4-5%, Meta ~3%. AOV $: $57-72.
7Summary by channel (Mar → May, MoM)
| Channel | ROAS start | ROAS end | Δ ROAS | CPC | CVR% | AOV |
|---|
| Search Brand | 8.07 | 6.20 | -23% | 1.05→1.37 | 12.1→12.4 | 70→69 |
| Shopping Brand | 2.14 | 2.04 | -5% | 1.64→2.17 | 6.1→6.7 | 58→66 |
| PMax Brand | 2.14 | 2.26 | +6% | 1.61→1.23 | 5.3→4.0 | 64→69 |
| Search Non-Brand | 1.61 | 1.50 | -7% | 2.19→2.07 | 4.9→4.2 | 72→74 |
| Shopping Non-Brand | 1.25 | 1.39 | +11% | 2.17→1.98 | 4.1→3.9 | 66→71 |
| Meta | 1.03 | 1.17 | +14% | 1.99→1.97 | 3.1→3.5 | 66→67 |
| Google Total | 2.38 | 2.64 | +11% | 1.75→1.72 | 6.2→6.6 | 67→69 |
ROAS = revenue_1dc / spend (CDP).
8Actions
- Rate recovery is real but uneven: weekends fully recovered (Sun May 31 ROAS 3.13 > MD Sun); some weekday softness still showing (Jun 1 Mon ATC% 21.7). Monitor weekday rates over the next 7-10 days — if persists, it's the macro backdrop.
- Search Brand CPC (post-Rakuten): recovery confirmed — weekly W21 $1.42 → W22 $1.37; daily Jun 1 $1.21. Continue monitoring 1-2 more weeks for steady-state CPC. Confirm in Auction Insights that Rakuten/affiliates remain out.
- Validate Cassia's bid cuts (US/UK/AU): IS appears to be holding — Search Brand CPC dropped without IS collapse. Compare against CA (bids unchanged) as the control. If IS holds at the new lower CPC, that's the new efficient level.
- Don't touch site/tracking: ATC%/CVR fell on intent/promo/macro, not funnel leak; brand CO CVR is healthy.
- Macro (soft demand): upside is in well-calibrated offer/promo; test a checkout incentive for non-brand where CO CVR is structurally lower.