Shapermint · USA · Paid Media
Performance drop since May 26 + ROAS drivers
ROAS = (CVR × AOV) / CPC · CDP Redash 2635 (1d-click, revenue_1dc) · daily + weekly · data through May 28, 2026
Two distinct effects: recent comedown (rates) + MoM trend (CPC)
1Summary
Two distinct effects on top of a macro headwind.
ASince May 26
Drop in RATES (ATC%, CVR) after Memorial Day + promo ended. CPC stable, spend ▲, revenue ▲ → scaling, not loss.
BMoM Search Brand
ROAS down on inflated CPC — Rakuten affiliates bidding on brand KWs (per Cassia). Rakuten stopped May 26 → CPC recovery expected.
CBackdrop
Soft US macro in May (CCI ▼, real retail ▼) — WoW CVR erosion + higher promo sensitivity. See §2.
ROAS = CVR (ATC% × IC/ATC × CO CVR) × AOV ÷ CPC
- The recent drop is across ALL Google channels, not just Search Brand. Brand fell more (Search Brand ATC% −5.3pp, Shopping Brand −3.1, PMax Brand −3.6) than Non-Brand (−1.4 to −1.7). CPC stable; spend ▲.
- Absolute revenue went UP, not down: Search Brand same-DOW is at its 3-week high (Tue $24k→$43k; Thu $27k→$36k). Google total also ▲. ROAS fell because spend scaled faster than revenue — efficiency, not revenue loss.
- Why CVR/ATC drops: post-Memorial-Day comedown + promo ended, on top of softer demand (macro). Evidence: CDP — acq and ret CVR fall together; GA4 — drop is uniform across mobile/desktop/tablet (all −6pp) and across new and returning. Uniform = supply/demand, not bug.
- Lag caveat: 1d ROAS for May 27-28 is still maturing; the 7d line is already higher. But ATC% (fast metric) already confirms the rate drop.
- MoM Search Brand: ROAS −23% from CPC +35% (Google total ROAS flat). Cause identified by Cassia: Rakuten affiliates bidding on brand KWs. They stopped May 26 → CPC should fall. Cassia already cut bids in US/UK/AU on the 26 to validate IS holds at lower CPC (CA kept bids).
2US macro context — the headwind
US consumer confidence has been weak since the January shock, with a second dip in May (Middle East war, inflation). This pressures discretionary demand for shapewear and shows up as background WoW CVR erosion and higher promo sensitivity (CVR ▼ when offer is pulled).
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index — monthly
- January: sharp drop −9.7 pts (84.5) → year's initial shock.
- Feb-Apr: gradual recovery (91.2→93.8).
- May: another dip −0.7 to 93.1 — inflation worries and Middle East war intensify price fears.
- 2 in 3 consumers cutting spend; middle-income starting to cut discretionary (K-shaped → "dipping E").
- For shapewear (discretionary, price-sensitive): softer demand → background CVR ▼ and competitive CPC ▲.
3The drop since May 26 (daily)
Daily ATC% — falls May 26 ▼
Daily ROAS (1d vs 7d matured)
Mon May 25 = Memorial Day (long-weekend peak). May 26-28 the rates fall: holiday comedown, not a cost break. The light coral dashed line (ROAS 7d) shows how much the 1d will rise as it matures.
Drop by channel (peak May 24-25 → post May 26-28)
| Channel | ATC% | CVR% | ROAS |
|---|
| Search Brand | 27.8%→22.5% -5.3 | 14.9%→11.3% -3.7 | 7.79→5.48 -2.31 |
| Shopping Brand | 18.7%→15.6% -3.1 | 7.3%→6.1% -1.2 | 2.20→1.78 -0.42 |
| PMax Brand | 9.6%→6.0% -3.6 | 5.7%→3.2% -2.4 | 3.06→1.89 -1.17 |
| Search NB | 12.3%→10.6% -1.7 | 4.6%→3.8% -0.8 | 1.70→1.30 -0.40 |
| Shopping NB | 12.6%→11.2% -1.4 | 4.2%→3.5% -0.7 | 1.58→1.23 -0.35 |
Falls across all Google channels. Brand falls more than Non-Brand. Same pattern → common cause (supply/demand), not channel-specific.
Revenue vs Spend — Google Total daily
Revenue (black line) UP WoW, not down — Tue $78k→$57k→$86k; Wed $68k→$65k→$74k; Thu $66k→$56k→$74k (highest). Spend (dashed coral) rose more → that's why ROAS fell. Scaling trade-off, not revenue loss.
Why is the rate dropping? (CDP + GA4)
- CDP — acq and ret CVR fall together: Search Brand acqCVR 7.6%→5.3, retCVR 7.2%→5.7 — % of returning orders stable (~48-52%). If it were a new vs returning mix, only one would fall. Both falling = the offer changed (promo ended) for everyone.
- GA4 — uniform by device: mobile ATC% 27.3→20.3 (−6.9pp), desktop 31.9→25.5 (−6.4), tablet 23.8→17.5 (−6.3). If it were a tag/pixel bug it'd be one device. Uniform = real.
- GA4 — new vs returning: new ATC% 27.4→21.3 (−6.1), returning 36.5→28.0 (−8.5). Returning falls more → deal-seekers who already bought over Memorial Day weekend.
- → Cause = post-Memorial-Day + promo ended + background erosion (macro).
Search Brand — same-DOW (WoW)
| Day | ATC% | CVR% | ROAS |
|---|
| Tue May 12 | 24.2% | 13.85% | 7.74 |
| Tue May 19 | 22.0% | 12.66% | 5.74 |
| Tue May 26 | 23.0% | 11.81% | 6.43 |
|
| Wed May 13 | 22.5% | 13.55% | 7.23 |
| Wed May 20 | 23.4% | 11.51% | 5.55 |
| Wed May 27 | 22.4% | 11.11% | 5.29 |
|
| Thu May 14 | 23.4% | 12.48% | 6.02 |
| Thu May 21 | 22.1% | 11.12% | 5.48 |
| Thu May 28 | 22.0% | 10.92% | 4.78 |
|
Same day-of-week: ATC% ~in line with prior weeks; CVR erodes ~1pp/week (Tue 13.9→12.7→11.8; Thu 12.5→11.1→10.9) — a real underlying drop, not just the holiday. Highlighted = recent days.
4ROAS by channel — MoM (indexed, Mar = 100)
Monthly context. Search Brand drops to ~77; Google Total (dashed) holds. Shopping Brand slightly down; PMax Brand and non-brand rise/hold.
5Why is Search Brand ROAS falling MoM? → CPC (Rakuten)
CPC explains almost the entire MoM ROAS drop. From 8.07 to 6.18: CPC (+35%) subtracts −2.10; CVR +0.24; AOV −0.05. Cause of the inflated CPC (confirmed by Cassia): Rakuten affiliates were bidding on brand keywords, pushing up the auction. Rakuten stopped May 26 → we expect CPC to fall and Search Brand ROAS to recover organically.
Search Brand — daily CPC (May 12-28)
Green dot = May 26 (Rakuten stopped bidding on brand KWs): CPC fell to $1.31 that day (period low). May 27-28 return to $1.40-1.46 — short window; with more days post-Rakuten, CPC should stabilize lower. Cassia also cut bids in US/UK/AU on the 26 as a test to keep IS with lower CPC.
6The 3 ROAS drivers — actual values (weekly)
CPC ($) — rising in Brand
Absolute values. CPC $: Search Brand $1.05→$1.42. CVR %: Search Brand ~12-13%, non-brand 4-5%, Meta ~3%. AOV $: $57-72.
7Summary by channel (Mar → May, MoM)
| Channel | ROAS start | ROAS end | Δ ROAS | CPC | CVR% | AOV |
|---|
| Search Brand | 8.07 | 6.18 | -23% | 1.05→1.42 | 12.1→12.6 | 70→70 |
| Shopping Brand | 2.14 | 1.96 | -8% | 1.64→2.21 | 6.1→6.5 | 58→67 |
| PMax Brand | 2.14 | 2.78 | +30% | 1.61→1.16 | 5.3→4.6 | 64→70 |
| Search Non-Brand | 1.61 | 1.59 | -1% | 2.19→2.04 | 4.9→4.6 | 72→71 |
| Shopping Non-Brand | 1.25 | 1.38 | +10% | 2.17→1.93 | 4.1→3.8 | 66→71 |
| Meta | 1.03 | 1.15 | +12% | 1.99→2.01 | 3.1→3.3 | 66→69 |
| Google Total | 2.38 | 2.54 | +7% | 1.75→1.76 | 6.2→6.4 | 67→70 |
ROAS = revenue_1dc / spend (CDP).
8Actions
- Drop since the 26 (rates): wait 1-2 days for 1d ROAS to mature before reacting; confirm Memorial Day promo ended. If CVR stays below prior weeks' same-DOW after maturation, it's demand (macro).
- Search Brand CPC (post-Rakuten): monitor daily CPC over the next 7-14 days — expect a sustained drop now that Rakuten affiliates exited the auction. Confirm in Auction Insights that Rakuten/affiliates no longer appear.
- Validate Cassia's bid cuts (US/UK/AU): check if IS and Top IS stay stable after the May 26 cuts; if IS holds without Rakuten competing, that's the new efficient CPC level. Compare against CA (bids unchanged) as the control.
- Don't touch site/tracking: ATC%/CVR fall on intent/promo/macro, not funnel leak; brand CO CVR is healthy.
- Macro (soft demand): upside is in well-calibrated offer/promo; test a checkout incentive for non-brand where CO CVR is structurally lower.